Newsletter Issue #897
February 6th, 2017THIS WEEK’S TECH NIGHT OWL RADIO UPDATE
Why are iPad sales falling? Why are tablet sales falling?
Is it the fault of Apple and other computer makers for not designing their gear in a way that makes them indispensable for more uses than watching Netflix, checking some sites and sending email? Why did sales begin to fall after reaching a peak in 2014?
One reason may be that there’s no compelling reason to upgrade other than to get somewhat faster performance. But if you have an original iPad, an iPad 2 or the first iPad mini, you might want to buy something newer if you crave a Retina display. iOS 10 requires an iPad Mini 2 or later, and a 4th generation iPad or later. But these shortcomings shouldn’t prevent you from enjoying the device you have.
Still, the fact that Apple cut out some older iPads with iOS 10 would, one would think, have encouraged some users to upgrade. Or maybe they did, and it just wasn’t enough to make a significant difference in sales.
One thing is clear: Apple didn’t develop the iPad to fail, and I would expect they are busy looking at ways to make them indispensable. Aside from the fact that the iPhone “Plus” models, with 5.5-inch screens, may have cannibalized some sales, particularly from the iPad mini, it may be that Apple needs to make changes in the OS and the types of software allowed via the App Store. Right now, the prospects for using the iPad as a productivity tool are hit or miss. Some manage, others — and I’m an example — don’t.
I remain curious to see what Apple does to reboot the iPad. The chances that it’ll fade away anytime soon is slim to none.
Now on this weekend’s edition of The Tech Night Owl LIVE, we featured commentator John Martellaro, Senior Editor, Analysis & Reviews for The Mac Observer. During this session, John talked with Gene about the possibilities of running macOS apps on iPads, whether Apple is moving more and more functionality on Macs to ARM, and whether a total processor switch is in the offing. The discussion also covered Tim Cook’s statement that iPhone tech has plenty of room to grow, possible reasons for falling iPad sales, the possibility that the Apple Watch may become a BioMed lab, and what went wrong with the fourth generation Apple TV.
You also heard from outspoken columnist and podcaster Kirk McElhearn, also known as Macworld’s “iTunes Guy.” Kirk also talked about the prospects for moving the Mac to Apple’s ARM-based A-series processors and the reasons for falling iPad sales. Can Apple find a new direction to boost sales for its tablets? The discussion also included the varying opinions of Gene and Kirk about the value of trackpads, why Kirk no longer uses his Apple Watch and why, for now at least, Gene doesn’t plan to buy one. And what about those Wi-Fi glitches with the LG UltraFine 5K display, which has resulted in a design change to improve shielding. Kirk wonders why LG didn’t catch this defect during product testing.
On this week’s episode of our other radio show, The Paracast: Gene and Chris present a return appearance from our favorite UFO curmudgeon, Don Ecker. During this episode, Don will catch up on UFO lore, incredible lunar mysteries, the sighings he’s looked into, the hoaxes he’s exposed, some of the curious characters he’s run across. Don is the host of the one and original “Dark Matters” radio show. Accept no substitutes; the name has been used by other shows and sites. In addition to hosting radio shows about UFOs, Don and his wife Vicki Ecker were the former editors and publishers of America’s UFO Magazine, which was available on the newsstands for a number of years.
At one time, it as felt that personal computers, in the twilight of the PC era, would serve the job as pickup trucks. Regular people would rely on “sedans,” tablets, to perform most computing functions. At least that’s what Steve Jobs told us. I won’t compare this to the American auto industry, where people have begun to choose trucks, SUVs and crossovers over sedans.
In any case, iPad sales kept climbing from its introduction in 2010 through 2013. Then it hit the wall, as sales began to drop the following year, a trend that continues across the tablet market to this very day.
PC sales mostly continue to fall. The Microsoft Surface lineup had a 2% sales decrease during the holiday quarter. Mac sales climbed to 5.4 million from 5.3 million, but some will remind us that Apple’s December quarter actually had an extra week, so if you follow week-by-week sales, there was a small drop. Choose which version you want.
I suppose PC makers can take comfort in the fact that the sales decrease for some companies wasn’t very large last year, and it increased for some. So the PC may be nearing the end of its days, but it’s not coming as fast as some might expect. Indeed, it may just be that most of these machines are good enough that there’s little reason for people to buy new gear. It doesn’t help that Intel processors don’t improve all that much year-over-year, so why bother?
Many Windows users are sticking with Windows 7, circa 2009, although it does appear that Windows 10 is probably good enough for companies to consider migrating. You’d think after more than seven years, a company interested in performance and security would want to switch over to the newest OS, and perhaps that’ll be true going forward. But Microsoft reported a mere 5% increase in the sale of Windows OEM licenses in the December quarter. Part of that may be due to the fact that some people opted to buy new computers, rather than just pay for Windows 10, which exited a free update program last summer.
Although Apple continues to reaffirm its commitment to the Mac, some wonder if those words mean anything anymore. After all, 2016 passed without much in the way of upgrades until the MacBook Pro with Touch Bar came along. To some, it wasn’t the right choice. Making it slimmer and lighter wasn’t as important as improving battery life and performance.
And how dare Apple not offer 32GB of RAM?
Now tech gear certainly has its tradeoffs, and Apple said that using a memory controller that allowed for doubling RAM from 16GB would have meant slower memory — and hence performance — and lower battery life. Considering that the time between charges is already a testy issue for some, I suspect Apple made a good choice. The speedier drives also compensate, since virtual memory won’t have as much of a performance hit.
To be sure, battery life became a huge issue as some users complained that it wasn’t good enough, that it didn’t match the level of the 2015 MacBook Pro. But Apple released two macOS Sierra updates that might help. Fixes included the transition from integrated to discrete graphics on the 15-inch version of the Late 2016 model. Those fixes were intended to improve battery life. Another fix was designed to fix a bug that evidently only impacted Consumer Reports magazine and its peculiar scheme for testing batteries on notebook computers.
So CR has made the curious decision to use a single test to evaluate battery life, involving repeatedly downloading 10 sites from a server. It also involved switching off the caching in the computer’s default browser, to create an especially artificial situation that wouldn’t be duplicated in normal use. But evidently it was somehow meant to judge all notebooks in the same fashion.
It also yielded weird test results, where batteries would last hours longer than under normal use. But perhaps it doesn’t matter to CR’s testers that real users would never be able to match the extraordinary battery life the magazine reported for many models. At least it was consistent from one unit to the next.
With the MacBook Pro, it got really bent out of shape, because there was an obscure bug in Safari that only appeared when you used the Develop menu feature to turn off the cache. That setting yielded inconsistent battery life from test to test, resulting in a decision not to recommend the MacBook Pros.
Apple acted quickly, and worked with CR to isolate the problem that resulted from this offbeat test routine. The 10.12.3 update reportedly contains that fix, though it’s not specifically documented in the release notes. Still, CR reported stellar battery life, way more than the 10 hours claimed by Apple, and all was right in the world.
But the actual future of the Mac may have been revealed in the Touch Bar. Apple devised a setup that uses an ARM system-on-a-chip and a derivative of watchOS to run the Touch Bar in an otherwise Intel environment. That it works at all is a tribute to Apple’s expertise in managing its various platforms, and it may be the harbinger of a future where twin or “Fusion” processor systems may be used to pass off more and more functions to ARM. That would free Intel silicon to work more efficiently, not to mention improved battery life.
Whether it leads to the exclusive use of ARM on Macs is anyone’s guess. There are valid reasons to stick with Intel, such as the ability to run Windows and other operating systems with great performance on a virtual machine.
Right now the road beyond the Touch Bar is speculative, but I have little doubt that Apple can accomplish some fascinating things. It also represents a big investment in the future of the Mac, and a sure way to differentiate the platform even further from the Windows competition.
THE FINAL WORD
The Tech Night Owl Newsletter is a weekly information service of Making The Impossible, Inc.
Publisher/Editor: Gene Steinberg
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While the pace of speed increases from Intel has slowed, and for many, the Mac they have is fast enough, eventually it will fail or Apple’s latest or a 3rd party’s software latest won’t run on their legacy computer, content creators using Macs and not iPads will have to upgrade. Most are not interested in switching to Windows 10. So Apple’s next computers are a vital interest. With Kaby Lake generation processors now out, it’s entirely likely, based on previous Apple announcements following Intel announcements by 6-8 weeks, that there should be updated iMacs. Finally after nothing in 2016. The Mac Pro will finally get a update I would assume much later in 2017 when worthwhile new Xeon processors will ship. Unless of course if Apple redefines what a Mac Pro has to have, as dual processors have been available since the late Power Mac G4 years. The current model has just one processor. If Apple drops ECC RAM, then that opens new possibilities for Mac Pro with superior desktop class GPU(s) while still moving forward with Thunderbolt 3/USB-C. As the Mac mini has been a variation of the motherboard of the 13″ MacBook Pro, and that got an update recently, there is hope it too well finally be refreshed. I think a TouchBar enhanced USB or BT keyboard is all that is holding things up. Apple spent a lot of time on that, rolling it out first on the MacBook Pro, as that is a best seller and all (including keyboard with TouchBar and TouchID sensor) in one. Separating the Apple processor from the OLED display and sensor is probably a problem.
I am more upset about not having the freedom to personalize my Mac as I choose. Wintel boxes have always had greater flexibility, but now Macs are totally closed. That’s bad for the environment and simply not necessary as Apple profits plenty. Apple has forgotten what a personal computer is. A Mac is now but the singular vision of its corporate sponsor, Apple.
Thanks for the good recap on the talk of Macs and iPads over the last few months. My daily use of a 2014 iPad mini 2 and a 2012 MacBook Air is showing me that there is no need to upgrade in the near future. Would I like to have the 2016 MacBook Pro? Sure. But it’s a want not a need.
I know many of the apps on the iPad need a newer version of iOS. It will remain on iOS 8 until I have to move my iTunes library off iTunes 11 on a 2008 MacBook. I don’t need to use iOS 10 or the next version, the current apps work fine and moving items to and from the iPad is quite easy syncing with iTunes.
With the MacBook Air, there is a need to have a secure OS and web browsers. With OS X El Capitan, Apple supplied Safari and Security updates and there are no must-have features in macOS Sierra that would push me to upgrade. I can wait until after the WWDC to do so. After all it is better to upgrade near the end of the minor updates to macOS.
To this nearly former Mac user of over 30 years I don’t see iPad as the central problem to Apple. I see a more disturbing trend across all their products.
Oversimplified: Apple is happy to rake in most of the industries profits selling to as few users as possible. Some of the Mac Zealots of today always go back to this simple notion: Apple is a business first and boy are they whooping beehind. All that matters is profit. Profit profit profit.
I’m (or I was) the other type of Mac Zealot. The guy that said “Isn’t this insanely great?!?” The user. We users no longer matter to Apple. Our money matters, absolutely, but outside of that we are nothing. We are less than nothing really, which kind of falls in like with attitudes at Microsoft and Google.
What is wrong with iPad? It’s long overdue to support a keyboard/trackpad combo. That’s it. Couldn’t be simpler. With a trackpad/keyboard the unit could double as an informal laptop for zillions of customers. Apple doesn’t want to do this because it would hurt their Mac sales. That is: hurt their profits.
What Apple doesn’t seem to understand is that ecosystem and marketshare are the real game in town. Microsoft could have ended Apple and Google some time ago if they had pursued phones properly. For if MS had huge PC sales and huge Phone sales — EVERYONE would be in their ecosystem and that, as they say, would be that. Instead Microsoft dropped that ball —
— and Apple resents picking it up. Not only did MS blow the entire phone app world but they also fumbled the OS world. Windows 8 was an abomination. Apple should have JUMPED at gaining marketshare. They should have offered more reasonably priced entry level Macs and iPhones.
The Profit Mac Zealots usually chime in right now to say ‘Race To The Bottom’ as if that’s something intelligent to offer. I didn’t say price match. I said offer reasonably priced entry level Macs and iPhones. So that a Mac or an iPhone is definitely more than its PC and Android ‘equivalent’…. but not two to three times more.
Since Apple chose profit over users — they made some serious coin in most circles. Still are. The problem is that this ruse is becoming more and more obvious and Android and Windows 10 mature. People who normally wouldn’t give MS or Google a second look… are.
Chris Pirello did this devastating video in regards to how Android Nougat is more likable (to him) than iOS 10. That’s not just a fluke. The entire Apple fan press is in this awkward situation of feeling like Apple isn’t the Apple that made them fans any longer. That something is really wrong.
And I say again: it’s profit over users.
Here’s the simplest example I’ve come to in recent months. Suppose you really want a 15 inch MacBook. Not a pro mind you. Just a Mac with 15 inches of lovely screen. And you kinda sorta might like a touch interface of some sort. What I have just described is the ‘new’ 15 inch MacBook Pro.
You go to the store — you touch it, you love it. You’re no filmmaker or musician or anything. You just want that awesome Mac OS and stellar hardware. But then you look at the price and wonder, wait, could I live with a PC instead? Save a little money? Do I really need this 15 inch screen?
I walk up to you and say, “You know… if you’re just a basic user. Surfing, iTunes, email, Netflix — let me show you this Asus Zenbook Flip.” You look at it and you’re surprised. It kind of looks like the child of the MacBook Air and the newer MacBook. Somewhere in between. The screen isn’t as nice at the 15 inch Mac but it’s still more than nice. You say, “But it’s not 15 inches.” And I agree, and say, “But it costs less. Way less. Enough so that you can afford to put a 21.5-23 inch screen where you need the big screen most.”
So you ask how much that would come to, and I say, “To tell you the truth, you could not only buy a 23 inch 1080p screen for this laptop, you could also buy a second laptop and a second screen. Leave one at home and one at the office. And you’d still be ahead of the game.”
How much so, you ask. “So much so that you could buy a OnePlus 3T phone for yourself, which is as solid a phone as iPhone 7 Plus except for the camera. The camera is a B+ compared to the Apple A+.”
You are in disbelief. Two decent laptops, two decent monitors, and a 5.5 Amoled phone with 64GBs of storage and twice the RAM of Apple. I nod and say, “Yup… AND you can get your friend an identical phone. And still have $200 in your pocket.”
At this point the profit zealot says “you can’t compare apples to Apples” in another parroted iTalking point. But I never said any of these products are superior to Apple. What I will say is that they are more than good enough for the average user.
I went down this road. My wife needed a 15 inch Macbook. There was no 15 inch MacBook Air or simple MacBook. I couldn’t justify these absurd/obscene markup. Her decision to give PCs a chance got us two laptops and two phones. The savings allowed us to buy extended warranties on the laptops.
And since each laptop is kind of a lame iPad — no iPads needed. And since the phones are affordable phablets — no iPads needed. All of this would have been avoided if Apple offered a reasonably priced 15 inch, trackpad support of iPad, and iPhones with appropriate RAM and storage.
But Apple is only about profit. Not users.
So we have a company making record profits, claiming that over half the people buying new Macs are new to the platform. They report record earnings and sales for their most important product, the iPhone.
That said, there are arguments Apple needs to make cheaper gear. But they do to some degree. The iPhone SE, the Mac mini, and the MacBook Air, still available as a 13-inch model.
And we have people saying all or most things they do are wrong.
Peace,
Gene
“So we have a company making record profits, claiming that over half the people buying new Macs are new to the platform. They report record earnings and sales for their most important product, the iPhone.”
I never disputed profits. In fact I made it my core point: that Apple cares about profits MORE than anything else.
The number of new users to platform likely includes new users to computers period. Which isn’t switching as much as likely college students. The far more important number is share in general.
Is Apple growing? Sure. Last April it was at 7.4 percent of global PC share. In my book that’s a fumble. In the wake of Windows 8 that number could have easily been %25 percent. 1 in 4. EASILY.
By doing just what you say, “Cheaper gear.” But the problem you’re glossing over is there’s a difference between reasonably priced current-ish hardware and abandonware.
The Mac Mini? Updated when again? During Obama’s first term maybe? I recently bought a Voyo V1 MacMini. No, not a Mac, or a Hackintosh, but some iffy Chinese outfit that couldn’t care less about trademarked names apparantly.
But definitely mini. A quarter of the size of the current Mac Mini. This model is an upgrade from last year’s model. Not a model from 4 years ago. Last year. 4GBs of RAM, 128 SSD, quad core Apollo Lake. Oddly missing solid wifi and bluetooth support — but something that can be solved with a $20 dongle plus antenna. If you work THAT into the price it’s $250. With a real Win10 installation. Hooked it up to my flatscreen TV and BOOM I have a 55 inch computer.
Now does Apple need to offer a $250 Mac Mini the size of ATV4? No. But could Apple EASILY offer a smaller Core M Mini with 8GBS of RAM and 256 SSD standard? For $599? Yup. But they can’t. I mean won’t. Because if they did their $129 trackpad would come off as what it is: insanely overpriced.
Again: Apple cares more about profits than users.
Sorry to harp on that Zenbook but it comes with that exact spec. But includes a keyboard, trackpad, and HD display. Offered often for $499.
Now — do you SEE the markup I offered Apple? I allowed them to charge $100 more but offer less. To me this is a reasonable Mac tax when you consider OS X and related ecosystem. And remember: Apple doesn’t have to buy OS X from someone else to put it on their Mac Mini. And so again they make more money than the PC cousin.
The MacBook Air need not be. It’s abandonware. Simply mark down the current MacBook. It’s scary similar to said Zenbook but offers no 2 in 1 flippity floppity stuff. $799? A very reasonable price all things considered.
The iPhone SE? Abandonware. Since iPhone is a hot tamale I’d say simply up spec and shave a $100 off each model. 64GB storage and 4GBS of RAM standard. Again this is serious markup compared to some phones — but that’s okay. I never said they had to match.
“So the PC may be nearing the end of its days…”
Huh? There’s a difference between quarterly sales and units in use. While PC sales may be in decline, the total number of PCs sitting on desk and laps worldwide, WELL over a billion, possible a billion-and-a-half, is probably still growing, albeit very slowly now, which is why recent quarterly sales are down. There’s just no way in which many tasks done by honest to goodness general purpose personal computers can be replaced by tablets or phablets. PCs, particularly well-chosen PCs that can be repaired and upgraded (which leaves out new Macs, for all practical purposes) can last a long time. So sales will come from those remaining new PC buyers and the usual replacement cycles. In fact, some analysts feel that there will be a significant upgrade cycle this year and next, so there could be a small spike in PC sales. It’s nice that Mac sales are up again, but it’s still a drop in the bucket, worldwide, compared to PCs.
As for the “… iPhone SE, the Mac mini, and the MacBook Air …” as examples of cheaper gear, yes, they’re cheaper by Apple standards, but they’re not necessarily great value for money. As a fan of the Mac mini, I have to wonder how the current sealed-box mini is any more profitable to Apple than was the 2012 Mac mini, which was fully upgradable, repairable, and a real kick-ass little computer. It could rather be argued that they crippled the latest mini out of sheer meanness and greed. (And by the way, soldering things in place does NOT guarantee greater reliability as contemporary solder is vulnerable to heat — something ALL Macs are prone to given their overly tight dimensions — with the joints eventually failing.)
Getting back to the future of PCs, we also have to take into consideration the difference between the consumer markets and the enterprise. Consumers might well be thinking that an iPad is good enough, but things are much more complex when talking about the enterprise. And things get really complicated when considering independent contractors, freelancers, small business people — people like yourself who use equipment for your business, and equipment (with possible overlap) for your off-hours entertainment, home finance, FaceTime with the grandkids, etc. I expect that there is still a great need among a lot of people, in each of these categories, for a “truck.”
Apple has become a purveyor of digital fashion items. They retain a loyal following among many of us who are serious users because macOS still retains enough of that legacy goodness that it still meets our needs better than Microsoft (let alone whatever Google offers). But the love is really being tested of late. Plus many of us are so deep down the eco-system rabbit hole that switching would be very painful. But that’s true no matter who’s ecosystem you’re stuck in, so I won’t specifically nick Apple for that one.
I will watch with interest how Mac users who have had to purchase the current generation of sealed-box Macs react when they get a much shorter life cycle out of those expensive machines. What’s “nearing the end of its days” are the ability to drop a little more RAM and a nice SSD into your Mac and get two or three more years out of an otherwise well-built machine. The Apple bashing to come will make recent complaints seem like the good old days.
Full disclosure: I’m all in on Apple gear, and have been for some 15 years. So my remarks are not the work of a Windows troll. I love Macs, or at least what the Mac has been. But Apple doesn’t seem to want my love. As John Hart points out, today’s Apple ONLY wants my money. Well, they’ll only GET my money for as long as they put out gear worthy of the Apple tax. Ain’t seen much of that lately.
“But the love is really being tested of late. Plus many of us are so deep down the eco-system rabbit hole that switching would be very painful.”
Painful. Yes. I’ve been there brother. Still there in some ways. Where to begin?
Switching to Windows —
1. I’d recommend not entirely switching at first. 🙂 You know how owning an iPad is like owning an inferior Mac, but that’s okay, because it’s not your daily driver? That’s exactly how I’d ask anyone to enter the Win10 world. Buy it as ‘another’ device but not your critical one. Store nothing critical on it that isn’t backed up elsewhere.
2. There is learning curve to Windows. You can bootup a brand new PC and learn thru SFC that it’s a corrupted image. (Yay!) But once you figure out how to make sure your install is solid it begins to remain so. And there’s this trick where you take a snapshot of the system when you’re convinced you’re good to go. Drivers can be a bit tricky sometimes too. All these behaviors have zero to do with the Mac world and MS should strive to phase out their necessity (except maybe for the snapshot thing, which is actually helpful. Kinda like a global time machine.) I’ll admit if you’re not the least bit computer savvy and wish not to be this likely ices Windows as an option.
3. I would say in 6 months you’ll know if Win10 fits for you. Sell it if it doesn’t.
Switching to Android —
1. — is MUCH easier. Weeks instead of months. And far more rewarding. It’s so close to an iPhone and even better in some ways its eye opening.
2. Both Android and Windows lack the cool trick of Messages appearing everywhere. I know both platforms are scrambling to make this happen in 2017. I, for one, have no understanding why Google can’t offer SMS messages as part of it’s online presence… providing you use their Messenger on Android. Everything else is synced — what’s the big deal? If they can sync my photos, music, contacts, and email — how are messages any different?
It’s clear you are here to advance the arguments about switching to Android and Windows. The rest is window dressing (forgive the pun) based on feigned ignorance of Apple’s marketing philosophy of many years.
The arguments about Apple not delivering the models you want are old, very old. Apple simplified the product lineups nearly 20 years ago. That’s how it is, and that’s how it will be.
Today’s Apple wants money. Yesterday’s Apple wanted money too. That hasn’t changed either. Apple may not build your dream computer, and if that’s how it is, you have options obviously.
Anyway, you made you pitch. Have a nice day.
Peace,
Gene
“It’s clear you are here to advance the arguments about switching to Android and Windows.”
It’s clear you’re rewording my positions to take an authoritative/dismissive attitude. I’m saying and have been repeating the same few words: Apple is about profit not users.
You suggest it’s always been this way. In a way, yes, but not as bad as the Tim Cook era. I remember a Steve Jobs that was GIDDY to introduce new iMacs and new laptops. For instance many Macs should have gone entirely SSD about two years ago at this point — if Apple is to charge big prices for ‘future’ spec.
“Apple may not build your dream computer, and if that’s how it is — ”
No no, Gene. Don’t make this about me. I’m not one of these pro-users whining about the new MacBook lacking 32GB support. I get what they’re upset about but THEY are asking for consumer unfriendly ‘dream’ Macs. That would take the $2399 MBPro 15 up to $2599 — my exact opposite intention.
I’m talking about computers for the rest of us. At reasonable prices. I’m not feigning any ignorance over Apple’s marketing. I’ve worked in an Apple Store for crying out loud. I get that they want to be perceived as ‘the player’ class of electronics. The way Sony once was. That you’re not somebody unless you’re Apple.
Fine. Let Apple have it’s pro status line. They’re EXCELLENT at catering to it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t room (and vast interest) in a sub-brand. Apple, Sub-brand. Lexus, Toyota.
Personally I’d come right back to Apple with a more reasonably priced sub-brand. I’d gladly ditch Windows and only miss certain things about Android. (Truth be told I might stay ‘Droid until some feature parity happened. Tough call. I’m so new to Android the jury is still out.)
My overall point was that to question iPad and not Apple itself is get lost in the woods.
Peace back at you.
It still comes back to the fact that Apple isn’t building your dream computer for whatever reason.
If you feel compromising with an existing product is an inferior solution than wholesale platform switches, fine.
But that’s where it stands. The only avenue for people like you is to keep writing Apple and explain that their decision not to build what you want meant they lost you as a customer. If enough people did that, I suspect you’d see some changes.
Peace,
Gene