Is the Mac OS Dying?
August 31st, 2010You know that Apple is, nowadays, earning far more income from mobile products than from Macs. Right now, more people own products powered by iOS than powered by Mac OS X, so you begin to wonder where this all might be heading.
Recently, Apple applied for a patent covering touchscreens on regular Macs, which would appear to mean that you’ll be able to use them in roughly the same fashion as an iPhone or iPod touch, counting for the differences in screen size.
The possibility of running the iOS under — or in place of — Mac OS X has also gained traction among people who love to speculate about what Apple is up to.
There is also that statement that Steve Jobs made before he returned to Apple, that the company he co-founded should milk the Mac for all its worth, and then move on to the next great thing. That thing, it appears, must be the iOS, and now that it is more popular than the Mac, are we seeing the handwriting on the wall?
Consider, also, the last WWDC, where Apple almost pretended there was no Mac or Mac OS X, except for a few workshops. You could almost believe that Apple had put Macs on the back burner, except to release simple product refreshes to keep the products from growing stale.
Then there are those quotes from Steve Jobs comparing the PC to a truck, and the mobile platforms to slick cars. That indeed conveys the impression that Macs are becoming outmoded, and, except for a small devoted core of users, will soon become extinct.
But wait a minute! It’s also true that more and more Macs are being sold each and every quarter? Sales increases continue to lead the PC industry overall, and estimates score potential Apple sales as reaching — or perhaps exceeding — four million this quarter. Compare that to the final quarter of 2000, where Apple moved less than 400,000 Macs.
The continuing growth of the Mac segment comes at a time when Apple seems barely spending any marketing money to spur sales. New models seldom garner more than a simple press release; indeed, the last MacBook refresh didn’t even merit that. Apple is clearly depending on the “halo effect,” that sales of iPhones and iPads, and even iPods, introduce people to Apple’s cool and iconic technology, thus convincing them that their next PC purchase ought to be a Mac. That may be why those cute “Mac Versus PC” ads have been discontinued.
Now it’s fair to say nobody has said the PC is forever, although I suppose Microsoft would wish it so, since they wouldn’t have to spend so many billions of dollars in failed attempts to move beyond their core operating system, server and productivity software products. Then again, Microsoft makes huge profits from those legacy products, so it’s not as if they were in danger of folding anytime soon. Even if sales were to flatten and, ultimately, decline, that process might take years to complete. Microsoft’s executives still have plenty of time to fatten their bank accounts before the boom falls.
As far as Apple is concerned, I suppose it is possible to craft a version of the iOS for desktop Macs. After all, that OS is derived from Mac OS X. But the simplification is largely to make it possible to use touchscreens. A traditional setup with mouse (or trackball) and keyboard wouldn’t require so many sacrifices, although there might be things that could be ported over to help make Mac OS X more useful to beginners and those for whom a sophisticated Unix-based OS is just too much for their needs.
But the real question is why Apple would want to ditch Mac OS X and deploy the mobile version on regular Macs. I fail to see where that would make any sense, except perhaps to refine interfaces here and there. If people really want the iOS — and require many of the functions a PC offers — the iPad and its successors ought to fill the bill nicely.
Indeed, I have suggested on several occasions that the iPad is the Mac of the future, although a lot of changes will have to be made between now and then before that makes sense. I don’t need to bore you with a laundry list of what you can’t do on the iPad, beyond the lack of a conventional file system and — so far at least — the lack of native support for printing. At least you can get apps to print your documents and Web pages, but they require a desktop Mac or PC to connect to a printer for that to happen. The iPad also requires iTunes for syncing; it cannot exist all by itself, at least not yet.
As far as Macs are concerned, I’m not selling mine anytime soon. You shouldn’t either, unless the iPad does everything you need a computer to do.
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Usually, when Apple puts out a new version of an OS it reaps many millions in profit, it’s always been a reliable cash cow. I’m not so sure this was true when Snow Leopard was released. You have to balance its cheap price against the no doubt large r. & d. costs needed to produce it. So I would imagine this puts pressure on Apple to release a full-priced OS X.7 sooner rather than later. And anyway, when Steve talked about cars versus trucks he was looking a number of years into the future, we have a long way to go before we get there. This is no time to write the obituary of OSX.
It is important to remember that iOS is just a fork of the OSX tree, they share the same underpinnings. The ability to move include files from one to the other is relativity easy.
The fact that they will merge in some fashion in the future is simply an evolution of both OSX and iOS. The difference is marketing, form factor and features underneath they are the same.
As Mr. Jobs has said, “There’s an old Wayne Gretzky quote that I love. ‘I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.’ We’ve always tried to do that at Apple since the very beginning and we always will.”
Those that fret about the end of OSX are merely concerned about the power and structure of iOS at present. If iOS and the hardware it runs on continue to evolve, and they most certainly will, and one can comfortably perform all the functions that are currently performed on OSX, than the “power uses” will have less to worry over. But I can barely do what I need to do now on a current MacBook Pro with plenty of RAM without hiccups, so its still going be some time.
As my old coach used to say, perhaps not as eloquent as Mr. Gretzky, let’s not stand around watching the puck, anticipate where you need to be so you’ll be ready for the pass when it gets there.
The bottom line is that as iOS evolves, it will certainly catch up to OSX in terms of functionality and at some point in the future many people, including content creators, will sit back and say, “Why are there two OSs again?”
Thanks Gene.
Geez, what a boneheaded argument it is that Mac OSX is dying.
What is iOS? It is a subset of Mac OSX for mobile devices, with touch screen extensions. If Mac OSX gets those touch screen extensions does it become any less Mac OSX? No.
Furthermore, it could be said that as the hardware gets better on the iPhone/ iPad platform, then more of Mac OSX can be included in iOS. We could be seeing nothing more than OS consolidation.
Large touch screens are reported to be rather tiring, because you need big arm movements. Perhaps, Apple has plans to overcome this fact, but we don’t know yet.
It seems foolish to read too much into Apple’s actions. Apple needed, at the last WWDC, to support the iPad platform and there was nothing new to say about the Mac. Soon, it will be the Mac’s turn to crow as the 64 bit kernel is enabled and the new features in 10.7 are announced. Will we be seeing articles about how Apple is neglecting the iPhone? Probably.
“And anyway, when Steve talked about cars versus trucks he was looking a number of years into the future, we have a long way to go before we get there.”
I agree, dfs. I believe Steve was talking in relative terms. If Macs for content creation (trucks) triple in numbers while iPads for content consumption (cars) becomes twenty times larger than Macs, then you could talk about how much larger the content consumption market is. That’s true, but Steve never said that content creation, or the Mac market, would decline.
All this is about is extending computers to an ever wider market. The computer market started with the mainframe computers, then to hobbyists, and later, to businesses, on Micro computers. Each time the marketplace grew, it was to include people who did not fit the profile of the previous groups. Everyone who owns a computer now, has their needs being met. Many people do not like computers, now. They are the market at which the iPad is aimed.
It is the Enterprise market which is the biggest now, but how long will that last? We are ready for a new consumer driven phase which will ultimately dwarf the business market. Apple is positioned to take advantage of that, but it had to bring this new market into existence with the iPad.
Exactly what will developers use to develop iOS apps if MacOS disappears? The two will merge in the future. Whether they call it iOS or MacOS or something else is purely cosmetic.
When I get some sense that any real thought has gone into re-imagining the Finder for computer users, I will say that death is not imminent.
The fact that such a crucial part of everyday Mac computing languishes in some state of confused and bygone design sends the only signal I need about the energy and direction of development at Apple.
Are Mac Tech sites digging for content and have nothing to talk about?…. I say yes!
Bigger touch screens are science fiction. or are they? It’s about convenience. If you go to an apple store, you will see the staff standing around talking to people, all the scheduling is being done by people carrying ipads, before the ipads it was iPhones. it’s ubiquitous technology, tablets are big in hospitals too. for most of us a lot of our daily activities can be accomplished with a push of the button. the button pushing is an idea we’ve been developing for a hundred years. selecting icons and activating programs can be done more conveniently with a touch screen. I remember the first days of the mac when pc users scoffed at it because they didn’t need a gui, they could use a keyboard faster. the proponents of vi and edlin are correct as far as it goes, but children and the regular man do not have these skills, and the touch screen favors lowest common denominator values better than mouse and keyboard. both mouse and keyboard are good tools and I’m sure they will be with us for many years but the ability to actuate buttons with no tool but a finger is a realized technological dream come true. Speaking of Science Fiction, when are we going to see iGoggles and iGloves so we can dispense with the screen altogether.
hp compaq amd dualcore with firefox 3.6, my other computer is a Mac.
@shrunkin hed
Yeah… that’s what I want… dirty fingers all over my monitor…. :-/
There’s a big difference between using a touch screen on a mobile device and a computer monitor.
I predict that a touch screen monitor will be a failure.
Good timing for this article. AutoCAD just announced to be returning to the Mac. OS X must be dying.
@pz, Good to know the platform still has plenty of traction.
Peace,
Gene
i would not be surprised if Apple is taking the time to port the full osx and some new mac unique capabilities to a new set of hardware including apple designed processors CPU and GPU. Apple design and control. Remember where you heard it first. Security by chip is getting to a point where apple could very well be leading in this area. They have a totally different set of building stones then Windows, android, chrome and Meego.
One thing is for sure. The era of two operating system and one having 95% is over.
If i am correct the thing to be looking out for is differentiating value proposals for consumer and prosumer.
Going back not to long, Apple was unique and created just about everything, even digital cameras 🙂 The lesson was learned to grow but to grow over time not over night. So maybe now the time has come to let us see a glimpse if this strategy implemented in form of products with unique features and complete solutions. exiting in so many ways 🙂
Maybe it takes a few more years to be more or less self sufficient and having total creator control?
User experience control will be a issue for all brands that want to be in premium segment so the choice of control by inhouse development or sending product specifications to ODM is not that easy but if you have the capability to build for the future would you rather build outside or inside the company?
As i see it OSX is one of the pillars in apples strategy and not going away anytime soon.
I’d say OS X is sort of coasting right now: Snow Leopard introduced a series of technologies that are not being taken that much advantage of yet: no OpenCL apps yet, not many 64bit kernel-compatible device drivers, etc. My guess is Apple will let OS X 10.6 go through the usual cycle of updates, and then 10.7 will be about more consumer-side web services and iThings, plus advancing a few SL elements to fuller functionality (Quicktime X needs a codec plugin system, for example).
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Shawn King, Gene Steinberg. Gene Steinberg said: Here's my latest Tech Night Owl commentary: : Is the Mac OS Dying? http://bit.ly/bw6Dg7 […]
Not sure where you’re getting your information on apps not using OpenCL…. several apps already use OpenCL… and in addition… and there are a load of 64-bit kernel drivers….
@DWalla, I honestly would like to know about those OpenCL-based apps, as the topic interests me a lot, and I haven’t found any publicity mentioning the fact.
The two prevalent words that I continue to see with Apple are “future” and “change.”
From command line to graphical user interface, from the MOS Technology 6502 to Motorola/IBM Power PC processor, from classic Mac OS to OS X, and from tiny footprints in consumer electronics to a major player, Apple has evolved.
I do not know what will happen to Mac OS X. Of course, only time will tell.
I do know that Apple is not afraid to abandon old technologies.
Things like the iPhone, Touch and iPad are fine for all of you consumers out there just checking your stock prices and catching a rerun of “Glee;” but for those of us who spend our days writing, designing databases, editing videos, or myriad other productive tasks, a real computer is a necessity. If Apple stops making real computers, with real keyboards you can pound on all day and storage and connectors, and applications instead of “apps,” etc, then we will be forced to move to another platform that still does. And don’t start yelling “Cloud!” You can’t edit a feature film in the clouds.
Productive workers may scarcely register to many Apple iEnthusiasts, but they make up the bulk of Windows and Linux installations. (Don’t know about Macs any more.) If Apple wants to concentrate on being a consumer electronics company, that’s their right. But the fact remains that most productive work gets done on computers — including, for the time being, developing Apple’s consumer electronics, iOS and apps!
I find my Macs to be the best tools for productive work, but I’ll leave Apple in a heartbeat if they abandon the Mac as a real tool. What choice would I have? I don’t think Apple will do that, I don’t think that makes any sense. But you never know what the Steve-man is up to. He sure isn’t the sentimental type.
Steve said he would milk the Mac for all its worth, and then sell it (AAPL).
@PIF, Yes, I’ve heard that version too.
Peace,
Gene
@PIF,
That was back in 1995 when Steve was still trying to get NeXTstep to be accepted in the computer market. Apple and NeXT Corp were competitors; harsh words were commonplace. Steve apparently changed his mind in the meantime.
Apple has done rather well in adapting NeXTstep to the Macintosh. The Mac has come from under a percent of the US market to almost 10% in twelve years. Not bad, I’d say. It’s nothing to throw away, either. Only a fool would think that this was called for.
@Louis Wheeler, I think it’s clear that Jobs will let the Mac run its natural course. I don’t see it disappearing for a number of years, but when most people are using tablet-based computers, except for businesses that require a traditional personal computer, the Mac won’t be on the radar for many people and the same will be true for a Windows PC.
Peace,
Gene
@Gene Steinberg,
If the computer market place is to keep expanding, then computers need to adapt to people, not the reverse. The first computers were very hard to use and it has only by making them easier that the market has expanded.
Take the tablet computers for instance. They were unsuccessful for over ten years. Why? Because they were designed for existing markets and were just as hard to use as a laptop. An iPad is considerably easier to use than a laptop and its success derives from that fact.
Is any of this letting the Mac run its natural course? No way, It is Apple competing at its utmost. It is Apple expanding the marketplace by bringing in customers who would never buy a PC or a Mac. The traditional personal computer will be a lower percentage of the overall market, even when they continue to grow in absolute numbers. Will Apple care if iPads are 90% of the Mac market? No way.
@Louis Wheeler,
Yes way. Laptops will continue to grow for a little while longer and then they will give way to the touch devices like the iPad. Time marches on. I don’t want my future desktop to be similar to the one I have now. Why would I want continues use of mechanical keyboards and optical drives? Let’s get real!
@Mark,
Tablet devices, no matter what their OS, are essentially content consumption devices. At the present time they do not provide any reasonable means for content creation…such as a nice simple text document. “Hunt and peck” two finger typing just does not cut it for anything substantial. Therein lies the fundamental difference between, for example, a netbook or low powered laptop and a tablet. While many people find the iPad “liberating” because of its size and weight, it is not a fully featured computing device by any stretch of the imagination.
As to the Mac OS “dying out”, I am not sure who began that false premise, but it is just plain silly. iOS, web OS, android or any other touch tablet OS may grow, but can not supplant the fully featured OS. It would be a sad day, indeed, if the Mac OS died. It would mean moving to Windows for a real computer.
The Mac isn’t dying… nor is it going to be pawned off. It’s a viable market and any company would have to be idiotic to toss out that type of income. On top of that… the Mac feeds the ‘i’ markets as well… and vice versa. They feed each other.
The markets change… and many people will adopt iPads, etc. instead of laptops… for sure. But I’m in the film biz… and I can guarantee you, as sure as I’m breathing, that desktops will not be disappearing from my field…. ever.
@DWalla, “Ever” is a long time, DWalla! You can edit HD video on an iPhone now. I give it four years max before the first theatrical release film is being edited on the device that the iPad has evolved into by then.
Mac OS X is not dying. Far from it. There are more Macs being sold today than ever before.
Steve Jobs years ago discussed the digital lifestyle. In the digital lifestyle, the computer is the center hub with peripherals such as the iPod, iPad, and iPhone being the satellites.
Steve Jobs has simply accomplished what he was going to do.
There will aways be a need for the hub of the digital lifestyle. That is the Mac and Mac OS X. Period.
The more iOS devices that sell, the greater the need will be for Mac OS X and Macs. After all, do you want to run iTunes in Windows??????? Where do you want to store your music and media????? in Windows??????
Mac OS X is not dying. In fact, it is THRIVING.
The a holes that say that Mac OS X is “dying” are simply those who want more and more features in Mac OS X every year in Mac OS X. They are jealous that iOS is getting all the attention.
The problem with this thinking is that iOS is Mac OS X – it is a subset of Mac OS X.
What one can say is that Apple has been successful in using a single operating system in all of its products. Wow! One can’t say that about Windows.
Whatever new is in iOS can easily be folded back into Mac OS X and vice versa. They are just the same OS.
Mac OS is spawning children and grandchildren!!!
I believe it is, just like all OS’ for desktop machines. Desktop and their cousins, laptops, as they are now are a dying breed. They will be replaces just as surely as 8-Tracks were replaced by cassettes and then computer aided digital recording that we all have access to now.
I’m sure Apple users thought that it would survive when Macs and Amigas came out. Microsoft even had to adopt graphical interfaces in order to keep up. The future is touch screens for now, but eventually they will be replaced by something else. I’m typing on a mechanical keyboard, that too will be replaced.
Apple is the leader and everyone else is cleaning up after the horses.
LOLOLOL!!!!
Ok. Editing a 4K Rez film on an iPad??? LOL!!!
So you have any idea what the bandwidth and processing power it takes to handle a 4K Rez file?? I’m a huge Apple fan, but buddy, you’re smoking crack. HD H264 compressed 4:0:0 isn’t even a sneeze in a hurricane in difference. LOL!!!!
Even then, cutting a movie is only a small portion of the process. You have a lot of other steps to complete a film which includes: colorist work, motionography, compositing, visual fx, surround sound mixing, mastering, etc. There is a greater chance that they’ll discover the magical fountain of youth in the Amazon than film will be finished on on iPad. ROFLMAO!!!!
Not to mention the sheer amount screen real estate you need to track the hundreds, and sometimes, thousands of clips when cutting a film. Also… when you cut film you need full-res large screen previews so you can check for visual flaws and other issues that you could never get from a 9″ screen.
Oe continuing need for MacOS will be for the computer used to develop the iOS apps. The touch system will not work that well for software development.